Impact on a business & economy

culled from:.bdc.ca

Staffing

Unlike natural disasters, where a disruption is likely hardware-related, disruption to business operations in the event of a pandemic is anticipated to be mainly human-resource oriented.
Overall a pandemic wave may last about 8 weeks.

Businesses should plan for:

• up to 50% staff absences, for periods of about 2 weeks at the height of a severe pandemic wave.
• lower levels of staff absences for a few weeks on either side of the peak.

An influenza pandemic usually spreads in 2 or more waves, either in the same year or in successive influenza seasons. A second wave may occur within 3 to 9 months of the initial outbreak and may cause more serious illnesses and deaths than the first. In any locality, the length of each wave of illness is likely to be 6 to 8 weeks.

Staff absences can be expected for many reasons:

• Illness/incapacity (suspected/actual/post-infectious)
• Need to stay at home to care for the ill
• Safer at home (e.g. avoid public transport)
• Fulfilling other voluntary roles in the community
• Look after school-aged children (as schools are likely to be closed)

Other impacts on business

A pandemic may have other impacts on businesses, for example: 

• The provision of essential services like information, telecommunications, financial services, energy supply, and logistics may be disrupted.
• Customer orders may be cancelled or may not be able to be filled.
• Supplies of materials needed for ongoing business activity may be disrupted. Further problems can be expected if goods are imported by air or land over the Canada-US border.
• The availability of services from sub-contractors may be affected (this may affect maintenance of key equipment, and is an area that merits close planning attention).
• Demand for business services may be affected—demand for some services may increase (Internet access is a possible example), while demand for others may decrease (e.g. certain types of travel activity).

Impacts on the economy

Depending on the scenario, pandemic influenza could have serious negative impacts on the Canadian economy and significantly impair the ability to conduct business and commercial activities. The CME report points out that:

• Public meetings are likely to be cancelled by the authorities or because of low attendance.
• Canada's trade status may be compromised.
• Impacts on critical infrastructure are likely to be moderate to serious.
• The tourism industry would be badly affected.

Business sectors at risk

The following sectors, which depend on heavy foot traffic, could especially take a hit if the avian flu turns into a pandemic:

• Retail
• Leisure
• Gaming
• Lodging
• Restaurant

During the SARS outbreak, people avoided densely populated public areas and any place where people congregated in confined spaces. Consumers are likely to cut down on travel and leisure-related expenditures, including transportation, hotels, cruises, entertainment, and visits to theme parks and other public venues.